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세계 중앙은행들, 6월에 금리 가장 많이 인상해
(美) Reuters 07-04

인플레이션과의 전쟁에서 유리한 고지를 차지하기 위해 세계 주요 중앙은행들이 6월에 최대 월간 금리 인상폭을 보여주며 시장을 놀라게 하고 추가 인상 가능성도 시사함. 로이터(Reuters) 데이터에 따르면, 가장 많이 거래되는 통화 10가지를 관리하는 9개 중앙은행 중 7개 은행이 6월 금리를 인상했고 2개 은행이 금리를 동결함. 노르웨이와 영국의 중앙은행들이 지난달 예상보다 큰 50bp 인상으로 시장을 놀라게 했으며, 캐나다와 호주는 금리 인상을 다시 재개함. 스웨덴, 스위스, 유럽중앙은행(ECB) 등도 긴축 정책을 펼치며 지난달 총 월간 인상폭 225bp를 기록함. 5월에만 6개 회의에서 6건의 금리 인상이 결정됨. 투자 관리 회사 핌코(PIMCO)의 티파니 윌딩(Taffany Wilding) 경제학자는 “일부 중앙은행들이 낮은 인플레이션에 대한 초기 진전을 보고 있지만 전반적으로 어려운 상황을 맞고 있다”고 말함. 

미연방준비은행(Federal Reserve)의 6월 금리 동결은 놀라운 일은 아니었지만 세계 최고 중앙은행의 매파적 전망이 시장 전반에 영향을 미침. 전문 투자자문사 뱅가드(Vanguard) 애널리스트들은 중기 전망에서 “중앙은행들이 할 일이 더 남아 있다고 생각한다. 마지막 인플레이션 하락 단계는 가장 어려울 것”이라고 말함. 신흥 시장의 경우, 전반적으로 긴축 사이클이 힘을 잃어간다는 증거가 더 명확했음. 로이터의 개발도상국 조사에 따르면, 18개 중앙은행 중 13개 은행이 지난달 금리 결정 회의를 진행했는데, 11개 은행이 금리 동결을 결정함.  

원문

Central bank surprises see June become bumper 2023 rate hike month (Reuters, 07-04)


LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - The world's major central banks delivered in June the biggest number of monthly interest rate hikes year-to-date, surprising markets and flagging more tightening ahead as policy makers grapple to get the upper hand in their battle against inflation.


Seven of the nine central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies that met in June hiked rates, while two opted for no change, Reuters data showed.


Both Norway and the Bank of England surprised markets last month with a larger-than-expected 50 basis points move, while Canada and Australia resumed their rate hiking cycles. Sweden, Switzerland and the European Central Bank also tightened policy, taking the total monthly tally of hikes to 225 basis points last month. May had seen six rate hikes across six meetings.


Developed markets interest rates - June 2023


"While some central banks are seeing initial progress toward lower inflation, central bankers overall continue to face a tough balancing act," said Tiffany Wilding, economist at PIMCO.


"Without fiscal policy ready to save the day, we see a more uncertain growth environment with downside risks building over the cyclical horizon."


The latest G10 moves bring the total 2023 rate hike tally among G10 central banks to 950 bps across 28 hikes. Looking at moves since Norway kicked off the rate hiking cycle in September 2021, major central banks have hiked interest rates so far by 3,765 bps.


Reuters Graphics


While the U.S. Federal Reserve's pause at its June meeting did not come as a surprise, the hawkish outlook from the world's top central bank sent tremors through markets.


"We believe central banks have more work to do," said Vanguard analysts in their mid-year outlook. "The last leg of inflation reduction to central bank targets may be the most challenging, in our view."


Across emerging markets there was more evidence that the tightening cycle was running out of steam.


Thirteen out of 18 central banks in the Reuters sample of developing economies had interest rate setting meetings last month. However, 11 central banks opted to keep policy unchanged.



Emerging markets interest rates - June 2023


Having been a stark outlier in the emerging market tightening cycle that kicked off in spring 2021, Turkey's central bank under new governor Hafize Gaye Erkan played catch up with a 650 bps rate hike, signalling a return to more orthodox policy making. This was the second biggest rate hike in recent times since Russia was forced to deliver an emergency 1,050 bps rate hike following its invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, China's central bank eased interest rates by 10 bps.


The total rate hike tally for the year across emerging markets is 1,375 bps through 22 hikes - less than a fifth of the 7,425 bps of tightening delivered in 2022. The total amount of cuts is 60 bps across two moves.